Going Nine: NL Preview 2005
By Mark Healey | Pro Baseball Central - GothamBaseball.com | on Friday, April 1 2005

"I never thought home runs were all that exciting. I still think the triple is the most exciting thing in baseball. To me, a triple is like a guy taking the ball on his 1-yard line and running 99 yards for a touchdown." - Hank Aaron

Even the current steroid nonsense cannot mar what should be a very interesting baseball season. At the very least, it sure is nice to see some good come out of it like Mr. Aaron and the late Mr. Maris getting a little renewed respect. Shame it takes a scandal to do that.

In any event, Aaron's former team is getting a lot of attention — as usual — as Opening Day gets closer.

NL EAST

While we here at Going Nine recognize that 13 straight division titles — 11 of which have been earned in the NL East — is a tremendous achievement, the idea that the Braves are heavy favorites to repeat might be stretching things a bit. That said, the Braves could very well challenge the defending NL champion St. Louis Cardinals for the best record in the senior circuit.

While acquiring 29 year-old righthander Tim Hudson from the Oakland A's was another coup for Atlanta GM John Schuerholz, the decision to return John Smoltz to the starting rotation after three seasons of being one of the premier closers in baseball is more than a bit risky. His replacement is Dan Kolb, who saved 39 games for also-ran Milwaukee last season, so GN is predicting a downturn for the Braves' pen.

In addition, the team didn’t address its offensive needs following the free-agent defection of J.D. Drew to the Dodgers, and the acquisitions of Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi to flank centerfielder Andruw Jones are reaches at best.

Gamer and team leader Chipper Jones is coming off an off-year — .248 avg., 30 HR, 96 RBI — so Atlanta will need second baseman Marcus Giles, first baseman Adam LaRoche and catcher Johnny Estrada to play the way they did in the second half of last season to provide some protection for the former NL MVP.

Well, you're probably saying at this point, "Heals, that's a lot of question marks for a slam-dunk division winner."

Not when you use your head, Fred.

Schuerholz and Atlanta skipper Bobby Cox might not have the WS rings that GN and many baseball observers feel they should have, but winning the NL East every year — especially last season, when the team figured to collapse following the departures of All-Stars Javy Lopez, Gary Sheffield and Greg Maddux — is a skill they’ve mastered so well, it’s rather foolish to pick against them this year.

Expect the New York Mets to be a factor in the NL Wild Card race all season, and while they probably won't win it (Houston's 1-2-3 of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt are the best top of the rotation in the NL, hence GN's pick for the Wild Card) the additions of Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez instantly make the team better. When you figure that the careers of David Wright and Jose Reyes are about to explode, things will be fun again at Shea Stadium this season.

Pete and Charley, at the top of the rotation and in the No. 3 spot in the batting order, immediately fill the two biggest holes New York needed addressing in the off-season. Their high-profile status has energized the "New" Mets, and byproduct of all the pomp and circumstance has made spring training relatively painless and stress free for the young pair of Wright and Reyes. The Franchise (Tom Seaver for those who need an explanation) said so several times during New York's spring telecasts, feeling that the lack of attention on the pair will play a huge role in the development of their careers, Their cementing as All-Star caliber players will increase the team's chances of playing winning baseball after three years of, well, really crappy baseball, but the questionable bullpen may thwart a postseason berth.

The other team being hailed as a possible NL East contender is Florida, but how can a team that replaces its ace (Carl Pavano) and closer (Armando Benitez) with lesser talent (wild and creaky Alois Leiter) or an unproven commodity (Guillermo Mota) you have to wonder what the prognosticators are looking at.

Sorry, not getting it. Potential? Sure. NL East title? Too many things have to go right for the pitching staff.

By deciding to let 18-game winner Pavano and Benitez (an NL-best 47 saves last season) explore free agency, the Marlins have turned what's being highly touted as a top rotation, pretty shaky to GN.

Only the team's No. 5 starter, veteran journeyman Ismael Valdez, won more than 10 games last year, and "ace" Josh Beckett (yes, ace goes in quotes, as a World Series MVP does not a career make) has yet to pitch more than 160 innings a season because of blister problems.

A.J. Burnett has great stuff, but can never stay healthy is wild, and popular Dontrelle Willis and his funky windup recorded a pedestrian 10-11 record with a 4.02 ERA last season.

Yes, the team has a solid lineup, one of the best in baseball. However, the catalyst, lead off man and center fielder Juan Pierre — who hasn't missed a game since joining the Marlins two years ago — has missed the last three weeks of spring training with a strained right calf muscle.

Luis Castillo, free-agent Carlos Delgado, young stud Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell and Paul LoDuca can all swing the stick, making them a tough team to play, but GN thinks the staff has way too many question marks to be a considered playoff caliber team.

Phillies fans may want to skip this part of the column.

Guys, I mean it, not going to be pretty.

Okay, you asked for it.

GN thinks the Phillies will finish fourth, because this group can't make up it's gosh darn (family show) mind as to what kind of skipper they want.

Player's guy Terry Francona - yeah, that guy...the one you ran out of town because he couldn't manage? The same guy, who snapped 86 years of Bambino voodoo? - could not coax more than 77 wins out of this team (with a healthy Curt Schilling), so the club brought in tough guy Larry Bowa, who won 86 games in three of his four seasons with the club. Despite posting the best stretch of baseball since the halcyon 80's, he gets shown the door because he made the team 'tight.'

Spare me.

Not even the great and powerful Charlie Manuel will be able to teach this clueless nine how to win, but Jim Thome will have a dugout buddy, so I guess it all evens out.

That leaves the Nationals. Nice story, nice hats, interesting team, but Frank Robinson (another outstanding Hall of Fame player that is starting to get some love due to "Juicegate") will have had his fill of Jose Guillen by May, and MLB will giggle when GM Jim Bowden asks for cash to bring in new players before the deadline.

NL CENTRAL

The defending NL Champions will get to the World Series again, simply because Billy Beane thought that three years of Jason Kendall was more valuable to his team than keeping the Big Three together.

Enter Mark Mulder, who makes an already balanced pitching staff even better.

Mulder — despite a bad stretch of starts to close out the season a year ago — will thrive in a power-depleted NL Central (all the best hitters currently reside in the Gateway City), and the rest of the rotation, especially Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis will keep the team in contention long enough until Matt Morris is fully healthy.

The Cards' strength is in their lineup, paced by the impressive 2-3-4-5 of Larry Walker, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. While the team will miss Edgar Renteria (Red Sox) the additions of Mark Grudzielanek and David Eckstein, at second base and shortstop respectively, will fit in nicely.

As mentioned before, Houston's pitching is scary-good, especially when 20-game winner Oswalt is your No. 3. Of course this all is contingent on the health of Pettitte's elbow and one last hurrah (at least that what's Rocket's saying now) from the brilliant Clemens, but the ‘Stros look like a NL Wild Card winning, despite a lot of questions offensively.

Losing Beltran to the Mets, Jeff Kent to the Dodgers and with Lance Berkman on the shelf to start the season, the offense could struggle to produce runs. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are still productive players, but will need help from the Jason Lanes and Morgan Ensbergs of the world to step to produce just enough scoring to keep games alive for fireballer Brad Lidge, who will challenge the Yankees' Mariano Rivera and Los Angeles' Eric Gagne as baseball's top closer.

Everyone loves the cuddly Cubs and sings praises to Dusty Baker as some kind of managerial genius. Well, this year the Cubbies will struggle and Baker's ouster of Sammy Sosa and the free-agent departure of Moises Alou will put pressure on Baker to lead a team though a transitional year.

Nomar Garciaparra and Aramis Ramirez to have carry the offensive load (they will) and a breakout year -finally- from Corey Patterson (which won't happen) will certainly help.

As for the pitching staff, Mark Prior's health is tantamount to any run at the postseason. Kerry Wood is fun to watch, but is for the most part, is a .500 pitcher who walks too many people. Greg Maddux is still effective, but another year removed from dominance, and when LaTroy Hawkins is the best pitcher you have in your bullpen, yikes. The rest of the division is imperfectly put together, and their relative weaknesses make it likely that the Astros' pitching against these lesser opponents will make them playoff-bound.

Pittsburgh could very well make a serious run at ending a 12-year streak of losing seasons as they're no longer saddled by the ridiculous contract ex-GM Cam Bonifay gave to Kendall. Oliver Perez, Josh Fogg and Mark Redman are a solid 1-2-3 and Jose Mesa is a serviceable if not dominant closer. The offense, led by Jason Bay, Jack Wilson and Craig Wilson could score enough runs to keep the Bucs competitive.

The Reds will hit home runs, but adding lefthander Eric Milton — who gave up the most homers in the league last season — for a hefty 25 million, was kind of dopey. Adding David Weathers to a bullpen that blew 30 saves last season won't help, but a healthy Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn will at least provide some entertainment for the Great American Ballpark fans.

The Brewers have Ben Sheets, a solid skipper in Ned Yost, and a supposedly healthy Geoff Jenkins (sure, right), but another season under 500 is likely. However, a strong farm system will change our tune for next year.

NL WEST

Though a lingering groin injury will likely land new center fielder and lead off man Dave Roberts on the DL to start the season, the Padres are GN's pick to win the West.

For one, we think the Giants and Dodgers made terrible off-season moves (with the possible exception of Los Angeles' signing of Derek Lowe) and San Diego has some of the best young talent in baseball with ace Jake Peavy, shortstop Khalil Green and setup man Akinori Otsuka.

Peavy heads a staff that includes Brian Lawrence, Adam Eaton, and with Otsuka and Trevor Hoffman at the back of the bullpen Mix in vets Brian Giles, Mark Loretta, Phil Nevin and Ramon Hernandez, and the Pods have a solid all-around squad that should outlast re-worked roster for the team's first postseason berth since 1998.

Adrian Beltre finally delivered an MVP-type season and was allowed to leave. Alex Cora teams with Cesar Izturis to give the Dodgers the team's best double-play combo since Lopes and Russell, but LA general manager Paul DePodesta compounded the ill-advised Paul LoDuca deal made for last year's playoff push and tinkered with his NL West-winning team by brining in high-risk, high-reward players like J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent.

Even if diva Barry Bonds graces Felipe Alou's team with his presence by June 1 (GN's prediction) it won't be nearly enough to revive this creaky group.

Thirty-four year old Mike Matheny behind the plate, at first base, JT Snow, age 37. The double-play combination is 33 year-old Ray Durham and 37 year-old Omar Vizquel, while the youngster of the group is 31 year-old third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo. Than there's 37 year-old Marquis Grissom and 38 year-old Moises Alou in the outfield. Will any of them be awake by the sixth inning?

The Diamondbacks added Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Russ Ortiz and Javier Vazquez but will still stink, and Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd may have finally gotten it right after several different rebuilding plans Aaron Miles, Jeff Francis, and Garrett Atkins are all young guys that Rockies fans can get excited about ñ but will also be an awful team this season.

So, let's recap and sayeth some sooth.

NL East - Braves
NL Central - Cardinals
NL West - Padres

NL Cy Young - Pedro Martinez
NL MVP - Albert Pujols
NL Rookie of the Year - Chris Burke, Astros
NL Manager of the Year - Bruce Bochy - Padres

Mark Healey is the Executive Editor of Gotham Baseball.